Gold Investment Morning Post: New US Tariff Decision Alert Gold Price Short-term Callback

 


At the beginning of the Asian market on Monday (June 3), hedging sentiment rose again as global trade tensions did not ease. After losing 98 on Friday, the dollar index is still hovering low. Meanwhile, spot gold has regained the favor of investors, climbing further on the basis of last week's huge increase, and has now reached 1310.



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(Spot Gold Daily Map Source: FX168 Finance and Economics Network (Blog, Microblog)



This trading day, the market focuses on risk sentiment changes and global stock market performance, data, China, the United States and Europe will usher in a series of manufacturing PMI test today.



On the news side, the New York Times reported early in the day that the White House had decided not to support measures to impose tariffs on Australian goods. Earlier, U.S. President Trump's trade adviser proposed tariffs on Australia in response to the influx of Australian aluminium into the U.S. market in the past year. But officials from the Defense Department and the State Department opposed the move, arguing that tariff increases could alienate allies and harm the interests of the United States itself. The White House declined to comment. The news may alleviate risk aversion to some extent.



Technical analysis:



dollar



The dollar index continues to hover at a low level, breaking 98 on Friday and continuing its decline. In terms of technical indicators, the green kinetic energy column of MACD appears initially, RSI is stable at the neutral level, and KD index is down, suggesting that there is room for further decline. In addition, the high crosses collected last Thursday suggest that the trend may be reversed.



gold



According to the daily chart, gold prices rose more than $15 last Friday, strongly overcoming the 1300 level, mainly due to the outbreak of market risk aversion, which boosted demand, and the opening of the day jumped again, reaching the 1310 level. In terms of technical indicators, MACD red kinetic energy column expands, RSI index approaches overbought level upward, KD index approaches overbought level upward, and bull strength increases continuously.



The four-hour chart shows that the gold offensive is particularly fierce. Since touching $1,275 on May 30, the price of gold has accumulated and continued to rise to around $1,310. In terms of technical indicators, MACD red dynamism column expanded sharply, RSI indicators touched the overbought level upwards, KD indicators also touched the overbought level, alert to the possibility of short-term callback.



Fundamental positive factors:



On June 2, the Information Office of the State Council published the White Paper "China's Position on Sino-US Economic and Trade Consultations". White Paper Disclosure: The US government has made every effort to adopt a bullying attitude and extreme pressure, insisting on the inclusion of mandatory requirements on China's sovereignty affairs in the agreement, which has led to the delay in bridging the remaining differences between the two sides.



2. According to Reuters on June 1, US President Trump said on Friday (May 31) that preferential trade treatment with India would end on June 5. Indian officials say India may impose higher import tariffs on more than 20 American goods. Reuters also commented that this was not only the harshest punishment imposed on India since Trump took office, but also a new front in the global trade war.



3. On Friday morning, Beijing Time (May 31), President Trump tweeted that the United States would impose a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico. A 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico will come into effect on June 10. Market risk aversion continues to spread, and precious metal assets are gaining momentum.



Fundamental bearish factors:



On January 3, June 3, the New York Times retaliated that the White House had decided not to support measures to impose tariffs on Australian goods.



2. According to the website of the U.S. Office of Trade Representatives, Chinese exports from China before 10 May and Chinese goods arriving at U.S. ports before 15 June will be subject to a 10% tax rate. The deadline for the prior notification is to arrive at Hong Kong before 1 June.



3. Thursday's announcement of the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States for the week from May 25 was 215,000, higher than the previous value of 211,000, but in line with market expectations. Institutional reviews said the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States rose only slightly that week, suggesting that the labor market remained robust even as economic growth slowed.
 
 
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